There are essentially two types of Texas Democrats and they both are drawing two different lessons from the results of the 2024 election. I will call them centrists and left-leaning for lack of better terms.
Centrists Democrats are saying the lesson is that TDP has gone too far to the left, and that running campaigns based on social issues such as abortion, transgender and a liberal immigration policy is a losing proposition.
They have a point. There are thirty years of statewide losses. Those make a pretty convincing argument. As much as we love to talk about Ann Richards, she lost to a conservate rich white male Governor who went on to become President and start two ultimately disastrous wars. There hasn't been a Democrat who has even come close to the Governor's mansion since.
Left-leaning Democrats are saying the lesson is our candidates are not running left enough. This theory seems to propose that our candidates are not liberal enough, they are too conservative and trying too much to appeal to moderate Republicans, who are never going to vote for them.
They also have a point. All your Republican friends who are disgusted by Trump and can't stand Cruz voted for them anyway. Never believe a Republican when they say they will vote for a Democrat. They won't.
The old Democratic coalition was non-college educated working people, largely male, more conservative, focused on economic issues. Our coalition today is more highly educated, disproportionately female, socially very liberal, and less interested in economic issues. It is also much smaller. The reality of the situation is that there are 1 million more Republican primary voters than Democratic Primary voters. I am not going to argue about what is the Democratic Party's base, whether it is working class, middle class, male, female, African-American, Hispanic, White. That is a useless discussion. We do have a base. Our base is the 1 million people who vote in our primary. The Republicans have a base of 2 million. Turning out 100% of our base is not enough to even break even on election day. As Derek Ryan recently concluded in the Austin-American Statesman, the election was over in March.
The base has to be broadened. We need a base of at least 2 million primary voters to even have a chance to win statewide. The crossroads of the 2024 election shows us in stark terms what we have to do as a party. We have to expand that base of primary voters. There are two ways we can do that, two horses to choose from if you will.
One is the centrist path to focus on jobs, economic and kitchen table issues. It would involve getting over our objection to white males as candidates or party leaders. It would mean being pro-business, pro-agriculture, pro-job creation, supporting the energy industry, including oil and gas, and being more moderate on environmental issues. The other is the left-leaning or more liberal path. That means a more populist, anti-big business, anti-big agriculture, pro-organized labor, pro-abortion, pro-transgender rights party.
What we cannot be is everything to everyone. Either we want to win power and govern or we don't. It is time to stop pussyfooting around. It is time for real politics. Which path will get us to victory sooner? I don't know. Personally, I think the centrist path is the most likely path to build a base that can win a statewide election sooner rather than later. That is because Texas is and always has been a very conservative state. I know many who disagree. I do not doubt their sincerity in advocating that position. But I do not see a liberal Texas Democratic Party being anything more than a minority opposition party for three or four more generations at least. It took the Republicans 130 years to get back to power after Reconstruction. Democrats may take as long or longer. By my count that means at least 70 more years.
We need to shut up about "blue waves", "non-voters" or people who "vote against their own interests." Stop listening to and believing our own press. We need to get to know the voters and adapt our platform and message to appeal to the people who do vote, not the imaginary voters we wish would vote. Go right or go left or go down the middle. I don't really care so long as it leads us to statewide victory. We need to make our choice, climb down off the fence, stride over to the snubbing post, rope in hand, and take on the task of taming this wild mustang, and make him accept the saddle. Then we can start our journey Until we do, that outlaw is just going to keep tearing up the corral.
Jon Mark Hogg is a San Angelo lawyer, Tom Green County Chair and founder of The 134 PAC. His opinions are his own.
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